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JUNE 28th / 2016

Updated Team pages

Updated Rankings / Cheat Sheets

Updated Projections

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JUNE 18th / 2016

Ten Rules For A Winning Draft

JUNE 17th / 2016

Spotlight - Crabtree

JUNE 15th / 2016

Ravens Team Page (OL)

JUNE 14th / 2016

OL Rank Bottom 12

OL Rank 16 thru 20

OL Rank 11 thru 15

OL Rank 1 thru 10



JUNE 13th / 2016

FF Projections

FF Rankings Page

Spotlight - Freeman

Spotlight - Johnson

JUNE 12th / 2016

Cheat Sheet PPR: 1qb,2rb,2wr,1te

Cheat Sheet Non-PPR: 1qb, 2rb, 2wr,1te

Cheat Sheet PPR: 2qb,2rb,3wr,1te

Cheat Sheet Non-PPR: 2qb, 2rb, 3wr,1te

Cheat Sheet PPR: 1qb, 2rb, 3wr, 1te, 1 FLEX (RB,TE,WR)

Cheat Sheet Non-PPR: 1qb, 2rb, 3wr, 1te, 1 FLEX (RB,TE,WR)

Players to Avoid, Part 2 - WR

JUNE 9th / 2016

Cheat Sheet PPR: 1qb,2rb,3wr,1te

Cheat Sheet Non-PPR: 1qb, 2rb, 3wr,1te

Players to Avoid, Part 2 - WR

JUNE 8th / 2016

Players to Avoid, Part 1 - RB

Team Pages updated (OL added)

Rankings updated

Projections updated


JUNE 5th / 2016

Team Pages updated (Offensive Line added)

JUNE 2nd / 2016

OL Rank Bottom 12

OL Rank 16 thru 20

OL Rank 11 thru 15

MAY 31st / 2016

OL Rank 1 thru 10

MAY 30th / 2016

Bargain Bin - RB

Bargain Bin - QB

MAY 29th / 2016

Updated Team Pages
Updated FF Rankings
Updated Projections

MAY 28th / 2016

In Focus NFC West
In Focus NFC North
In Focus NFC South
In Focus NFC East

MAY 27th / 2016

In Focus AFC North
In Focus AFC East

MAY 26th / 2016

Tidbits QB
Tidbits TE
Updated Rankings

MAY 25th / 2016

In Focus AFC South
Updated Rankings

MAY 24th / 2016

In Focus AFC West
TWIF Notes

MAY 23rd / 2016

Team Pages S-W

MAY 22nd / 2016

Team Pages O-R

MAY 21st / 2016

Team Pages M-N

MAY 20th / 2016

Team Pages H-L

MAY 19th / 2016

Team Pages C-G

MAY 18th / 2016

Team Pages A-C

MAY 15th / 2016

Diamonds Rough
FF Rankings
FF Projections
NFL Team Pages


MAY 14th / 2016

WC - Raiders
WC - Eagles
WC - Steelers
WC - Chargers
WC - 49ers
WC - Seahawks
WC - Buccaneers
WC - Titans
WC - Redskins


MAY 13th / 2016

WC - Patriots
WC - Saints
WC - Giants
WC - Jets

MAY 12th / 2016

WC - Chiefs
WC - Rams
WC - Dolphins
WC - Vikings


MAY 11th / 2016

WC - Lions
WC - Packers
WC - Texans
WC - Colts
WC - Jaguars


MAY 10th / 2016

WC - Bears
WC - Bengals
WC - Browns
WC - Cowboys
WC - Broncos


MAY 9th / 2016

WC - Panthers
WC - Ravens
WC - Falcons


MAY 8th / 2016

WC - Cardinals
WC - Bills


MAY 7th / 2016

Spotlight Freeman


MAY 6th / 2016

Head Scratchers
Best Drafts 2016
NFL Team Pages


MAY 4th / 2016

FF Rankings
NFL Team Pages


MAY 1st / 2016

FF Projections


APRIL 30th / 2016

NFL Draft Round 5
NFL Draft Round 4
NFL Draft Round 3


APRIL 29th / 2016

NFL Draft Round 2
Best and Worst


APRIL 28th / 2016

NFL Draft Rnd 1


APRIL 24th / 2016

My NFL Draft Top 15





PF Daily: Fantasy Football Tutorial Series: Advanced

Every season is different

Back to Tutorial Series Index page


Sometimes when I look at rankings out there on the Internet, I cannot help but chuckle. Really, I swear some people think analysis is cut and pasting the final statistics from last year and bumping them up or down five percent. Newsflash for you folks out there! Every NFL season is completely unique and the majority of the players statistics shift season based on numerous factors. Just because a player carried the ball 350 times last year does not mean he is going to carry the ball 335 to 370 times this season.

While some experts out there will razzle dazzle you with advanced mathematical theories and terminology while doing advanced calculations using logarithms and other math terms that make 97% of the population's heads hurt, the most important things to have a successful fantasy football season have absolutely nothing to do with math. Ohhhhhhhh! Blasphemy! Wowwwwww! Heresy? Yes on all counts but also 100% true. You see, in all honestly none of the math, the formulas, the projections matter one damn bit if the player breakdowns, analysis and situations are not broken down well.

The true path to fantasy football success is in analysing each player's situation going into the upcoming season, his team's potential, what has changed, what may change, his age, his durability and his opportunities. It doesn't matter how you compile the rankings (although some techniques are certainly better than others). What matters is that you correctly breakdown each team and their likely success for the upcoming season.

Before I begin putting together rankings, I look at every team's coaching staff, rosters, schemes, offensive lines, changes and determine what has changed from the year before. Has a new coach brought a different scheme in to learn? Is it a different system than was previously in place? Is everyone healthy? Who has left? Who was brought in?

All of these questions listed above impact what may happen this season. You simply cannot take stats from the previous year and plug them in as everything changes year to year. Once I have compiled this information for all 32 teams, then I begin to break down their possible stats for the season. These projections will look very different in some cases from the last season while others will be quite similar. It all depends on that team's situation. You cannot plug last year's stats into the equation. If looking at the NFL stats the year before, look at the team stats instead of player stats as a guideline. What was the team capable of at each position, are they capable of more or less this year and what percentage of those numbers will player X receiver vs player Y and Player Z.

I break down each team (not individuals to start with... TEAM) in the following way

COACHING STABILITY

Has it returned intact from last year? If no, what has changed, what philosophies will be different and what percentage of run to pass will they use? Does the new schemes fit the personnel or are they trying to fit a square peg into a round hole? Answering these questions give a good base to your early analysis

OFFENSIVE SKILL POSITIONS

Is it the same group as last year? Has age become a concern? Are there young, talented players on this roster who have not produced yet but are capable of elevating? Are their veterans that may begin to show their page? If the starting quarterback goes down to injury, is there a decent backup to plug in? Are there true battles for playing time or is it pretty much set? These questions will help to pinpoint each situation even more.

OFFENSIVE LINE PERFORMANCE

One of the toughest areas of a team to break down. Has the talent level increased or decreased? Players lost? Players added? New blocking schemes? Without serviceable offensive line play even the best players are limited

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE

Every year schedules fluctuate and it is important to look at the schedule and determine how difficult a team will have it for the upcoming season against the run, against the pass and which games are tough on the road as opposed to home.

PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER

What I do at the end of breaking down each NFL team is put a score rating onto each of the above categories. I used a grade point average of 0 to 4.0 and use this grade to help determine projections for each player. It is simply another tool to really nail down your thoughts on each player. Projections are useless without dialed-in analysis of situations, players and team.

Example:

DENVER BRONCOS

COACHING STABILITY: 2.5/4... Veteran group but new scheme coming in that will feature more runs and less explosive passing attack

OFFENSIVE SKILL: 3.5/4... QB Peyton Manning's age is of concern as his the strength in his shoulder but very solid overall group here with experience and talent.

OL PERFORMANCE: 1.5/4... Some potential here but question marks along the offensive line at three of the five spots and depth limits the score.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE: 2/4... Pretty tough schedule with easier opponents on the road.

OVERALL: 9.5/16 ... Not as high of a score as one would think. New coaching staff, limp quarterback arm and suspect offensive line combined with a pretty tough schedule make this not as attractive as previous years.

SUMMARY

Doing this for all thirty-two teams really gives you a good foundation to begin breaking down each individual player. Next assume the situations are static year to year. It is surprising how often and how dramatically things can change in just one off season.






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